Austria could become a gigawatt market for the first time in 2022. Its cumulative solar capacity is potentially set to hit 4 GW, up from 2.78 GW at the end of 2021. The country is expected to install more than 1 GW of solar every year until 2030.

Austria might install 1.2 GW of additional solar in 2022, according to the Austrian PV Technology Platform (TPPV). If the prediction pans out, the country will become a gigawatt market for the first time.

“In 2022 we expect a further increase, significantly more than 1 GW, maybe 1.1 GW, 1.2 GW, or more,” TPPV Chair Hubert Fechner told pv magazine. “We see a dynamic of the PV market which is extraordinary right now. This is true, like last year, in both the residential and ground-mounted sectors. This development comes quite close to the numbers we would need in order to fulfill our national targets.”

Fechner predicts Austria will install between 1.2 GW to 1.5 GW in 2023 and every year up to 2030. The country may reach 4 GW of cumulative solar capacity in 2022, up from 2.78 GW in 2021. At the predicted growth rate, Austria could reach its goal of 13 GW of solar capacity by 2030.

Last year, Austria added 739.7 MW of solar, with decentralized PV contributing 655.7 MW and centralized PV 83.5 MW. Fechner is the author of a recent report on PV applications in Austria in 2021, published by the International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS)’s Task 1.

Centralized projects took a larger market share in Austria for the first time in 2021, according to Fechner. The trend is expected to continue in 2022 and beyond.

“This was the start of a period for a market that is much more diversified,” he said, noting that he expects ground-mounted projects to account for roughly one-quarter of the installed capacity in 2022.

Fechner said one of the main challenges for solar’s continuous growth is public acceptance of grounded-mounted systems, which does not yet match the high acceptance of PV installations in existing structures. Other challenges include improving the permitting process and grid stability.