By Danielle Ola
Aug 04, 2016 12:06 PM BST
2016 is set
to be another record year for solar globally, after 2015 which had a total
demand of 55GW, 10GW more than the previous year. Source: Flickr/Stellar Energy
Contractors
Global solar
installations are expected to grow 43% this year, to 73GW, according to GTM’s
latest report, ‘Global Solar Demand Monitor, Q3 2016’.
2016 is set to be another record year for solar globally, after 2015 which had a total demand of 55GW, 10GW more than the previous year. The first half of 2016 saw a major uptick in demand driven by an unprecedented volume of installations in China and the UK, in advance of expiring capital incentives. Also in H1 2016, the US reached a record-breaking 1 million solar system installs, which further solidified the nation’s number 2 position in the global market, with 14.5GW, bolsted by the ITC extension. India completed 2GW of solar installs within the same time frame.
GTM
forecasts a decline in the number of installations for the second half of this
year, primarily led by China, which raises concerns of a demand imbalance for
2016 overall. GTM estimates that the UK and Japan will also follow suit, with
India and the US to grow at triple digit rates. Regardless, the global market
is set for a slowdown in 2017, expected to drop by 10% - linked to policy
qualms in several large markets. China experienced a feed-in tariff (FIT)
pullback of 11% and major grid curtailment. After lower FITs and a halt on new
installations in three leading provinces, demand will pull back sharply in the
second half of 2016. Equally, GTM expects a major drop in demand in the UK for
the second half of the year, with no new utility-scale projects coming online
and a quarterly cap on FITs for residential and commercial capacity.
European
leaders overshadowed by Asian markets
Previously,
Germany, Italy, the UK and France were leading global demand on the strength of
their FiT programmes until 2012 when these were scaled-back. Beginning in 2013,
China overtook Germany as the country with the highest cumulative installations
globally at 44GW, and has beaten Germany every year in annual installations
since.
GTM reports
that Japan and the US are close to overtaking Germany. Japan, at 10.2GW of
installations in 2016, has fallen a few rungs in terms of global ranking, which
can perhaps be attributed to new government regulations around FITs that are
expected to strike-out around 30% of the nation’s 56GW pipeline of approved
projects. GTM predicts a “sharp negative turn” for the market in 2016 which is
expected to shrink by 12% year-over-year.
Out to 2021,
more than 20 countries will each offer >2GW of cumulative demand
GTM also
reports that global demand is rapidly diversifying as large-scale solar
auctions and net metering schemes permeate markets beyond the current top
three, with Latin America leading the way; as Mexico, Brazil and Chile are set
to install a cumulative 26GW by 2021. Emerging markets across the globe are set
to offer 2GW+ each by 2020.
GTM forecast
the Middle East and Turkey to add 19GW from Algeria, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and
the UAE, with Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia
adding 23GW by 2021.